Tuesday, December 13, 2011

hurricane possibilty in July

We are planning on visiting family in Houston in July. Our 9 year old daughter is very worried about hurricans. What is the likelyhood that there will be hurricanes in mid july? What about rain in general It is really the only month we can go. How scared should we be?



thanks,



A





hurricane possibilty in July


Come! Do not be afraid. Hurricanes rarely come to Houston and if something was headed our way, you%26#39;ll have plenty of warning.



Rain is generally short-lived afternoon storms.





Welcome to Houston.



hurricane possibilty in July


Is it possible - yes. What is the likelyhood - maybe less than getting hit by lightning. Huricanes are very rare and keep in mind that Houston is a good 50-miles form the gulf. Usually in July we are hoping for rain!




June/July -- storms generally form in the Atlantic, and veer towards the East coast.





September/October -- storms begin forming in the Caribbean, and are more likely to hit the Texas coast. Texas will typically see a couple of tropical storms make landfall each year, but hurricanes are far less likely. They can come at any time in the season, but it was over 20 years between the last two major storms.




Why would you allow a 9 year old to set the tone for a vacation? Adults should do that. There are risks in virtually all activities, rational, adult folks weigh the risks to benefits and make a decision. Adults shouldn%26#39;t be scared.





Children lack the experience and knowledge to make those decisions. I%26#39;m not saying to discount her fear, however teach her about hurricanes, their likelihood, precautions that can be taken, and plans for reacting to the threat. Armed with knowledge not emotions you can go on vacation and enjoy yourself.





To put it another way - think about earthquakes. Are you scared about earthquakes, or are you choosing to live in an earthquake area knowing the risks and benefits.





As to chances of a hurricane - if anyone here could predict with accuracy, they could make a bundle selling that knowledge.




The direct hit of a significant hurricane on Houston is roughly a once every 75 year event. Therefore, your odds of being there a week or so and seeing one are very small. Would you not go to California because there might be a fire, or to New York because you might get mugged? Common sense, please!




Hurricanes are not a once every 75 years or so. It is more like a major hurricane strikes every 20 years or so. We get lots of tropical storms or minor hurricanes, but not major ones.




Hi Swim,





Your having watched the televison coverage of Katrina and Ike, I can see why the rest of the world is concerned about Hurricane Season. Children and adults have natural fears, so just talk to your child, and assure her that you probably won%26#39;t run into a hurricane, and if you do, there will be plenty of warning to head for safety.You willbe there For her!





To put it into perpective, Ike was headed Right at us, but we had Two days to get to higher ground, so both of my kids headed to relatives in Dallas. We stayed, due to proprty and jobs, but we are an hour inland.





So, please allay your fears and come visit us! Like the rest of us, you will watch our great Frank Billingsley and other weathermen, who keep us informed on the local tv channels.





cc,



Cupcake





p.s. I have kids. and I am the one afraid of bears..ok, not rational, I know, but my kids will soothe MY fears, if we are headed to Canada.Everyone deserves to be heard and validated, and then go and enjoy! :)

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